基于模糊网络综合评价法的城际铁路建设项目风险评价研究

 

姬鹏飞1,符永力2,符  3

1.中交第四公路工程局有限公司,陕西 西安7100642.中交第一公路勘察设计研究院有限公司,陕西 西安7100753.陕西西法(北线)城际铁路有限公司,陕西 西安710075

  要:项目风险识别是项目风险管理的前提和关键,城际铁路建设项目风险因素较多、关系复杂。本文利用模糊网络综合评价法,构建了城际铁路建设项目风险指标评价体系和模型,并以西安至法门寺至机场城际铁路建设项目周期的项目决策、建设准备、项目实施、竣工验收四个阶段运用模糊网络综合评价法对城际铁路建设项目风险进行定量分析和评价研究,为城际铁路建设项目有效控制风险提供决策参考。

关键词:城际铁路;模糊网络;风险评价;控制

中图分类号:U231        文献标识码:A

 

Study on Risk Evaluation of Intercity Railway Construction Project

Based on Fuzzy Network Comprehensive Evaluation Method

JI Peng-fei1FU Yong-li2FU Qi3

(1. CCCC Fourth Highway Engineering Co., Ltd. Xi’an 710064, China

2. CCCC First Highway Consultants Co., Ltd. Xi’an 710075, China

3.Shaanxi Xian-Famen Temple (North Line) Intercity Railway Co., Ltd. Xi’an 710075, China)

Abstract: Project risk identification is the premise and key of project risk management There are many risk factors and complex relationships in inter-city railway construction projects In this paper, the risk index evaluation system and model of inter-city railway construction project were constructed by the method of fuzzy network comprehensive evaluation The method of fuzzy network comprehensive evaluation was applied to the construction of inter-city railway in four stages: project decision-making, construction preparation, project implementation and completion acceptance of the construction project cycle from Xian to Famensi to airport Quantitative analysis and evaluation of project risk were carried out to provide decision-making reference for effective risk control of inter-city railway construction projects.

key words: intercity railwayfuzzy networkrisk evaluationcontrol